Pierre Bonnard, Christmas Day & Enceladus Head a Fascinating St Leger Battle

Christmas Day is a Derby winner, trained by Aidan O’Brien and currently sitting near the top of the St Leger betting at 5/2.

On paper, that sounds like a fairly straightforward punt.

Look a little closer, however, and Saturday’s St Leger becomes much more interesting.

Christmas Day has been beaten twice since Epsom. Enceladus arrives at Doncaster having won all three of his races this season and is now the favourite at 2/1, while Pierre Bonnard is 3/1 after finishing ahead of Christmas Day when they met at York.

Then there is a huge gap to Highwayman at 11/1.

The bookmakers are effectively asking us whether the 2026 St Leger belongs to one of three horses. The harder question is whether Christmas Day deserves to be the shortest-priced of them.

The Case for Christmas Day Is Pretty Obvious

It is easy to become too clever when assessing a Classic.

Christmas Day won the Derby.

Whatever has happened since, he has already proved that he can produce a top-level performance against some of the best three-year-olds of his generation.

At Epsom, he beat Maltese Cross by two and three-quarter lengths, with Pierre Bonnard further behind in seventh. That remains the strongest individual piece of form brought to Doncaster by any of the leading contenders.

Christmas Day then went to the Curragh for the Irish Derby, where he finished second to stablemate Benvenuto Cellini.

His latest appearance came in the Great Voltigeur at York, where he finished third behind Maltese Cross and Pierre Bonnard.

On bare results, there is therefore a slightly uncomfortable pattern for anyone considering taking 5/2.

First, second, third.

Christmas Day has moved backwards one finishing position with each of his last three starts.

But racing rarely fits quite so neatly into a pattern.

St Leger Betting

Was Christmas Day Better Than His York Third?

The Great Voltigeur is particularly important when assessing the St Leger market because it gave us a recent comparison between Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard.

Pierre Bonnard finished second. Christmas Day finished third.

There was, however, an important factor at York. Christmas Day was carrying a Group 1 penalty, meaning he had to concede weight to Pierre Bonnard.

Doncaster brings them back together under Classic conditions.

The other obvious change is the distance.

The Great Voltigeur was run over roughly a mile and a half. The St Leger stretches to 1m6f and 115 yards.

Christmas Day is by Camelot, and there is enough about both his racing style and pedigree to suggest that an extra test of stamina need not be a problem.

If Doncaster brings improvement, the York result may prove a poor reason for opposing him.

Enceladus the St Leger Favourite

The most interesting challenge may not come from within Aidan O’Brien’s own team.

Joseph O’Brien’s Enceladus has developed rapidly this season and arrives with a completely different profile to Christmas Day.

He hasn’t been beaten in 2026.

Enceladus began with a Cork maiden victory before winning the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then made another significant jump when winning the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

His official rating has climbed sharply as a result.

Unlike Christmas Day, we don’t have to make excuses for his most recent result. He keeps being asked harder questions and keeps answering them.

That explains why his price has shortened and why the gap between the first two in the betting has become so small.

But Enceladus Has One Big Question to Answer

The St Leger distance is unknown territory.

Enceladus has never raced beyond a mile and a half.

Moving from winning the Gordon Stakes to racing over the extended mile and three-quarters at Doncaster requires another step into the unknown, particularly if the race becomes a proper stamina test.

Joseph O’Brien believes the trip should suit him, which is clearly encouraging.

Billy Loughnane has also been booked for the ride, with Dylan Browne McMonagle sidelined through injury.

The market has responded positively to that booking and Enceladus is now the outright favourite.

At 2/1, though, you’re no longer getting a particularly generous price for finding out whether he stays.

Pierre Bonnard Could Be the Value of the Three

Then we come to Pierre Bonnard at 3/1.

Of the leading three, he may be the easiest horse for punters to overlook.

He hasn’t won this season.

He finished seventh behind Christmas Day at Epsom and third in the Irish Derby before his much better performance at York.

But that Great Voltigeur second changed the picture.

Pierre Bonnard finished ahead of Christmas Day and chased home Maltese Cross, who is not coming to Doncaster.

He also has a pedigree that makes the St Leger trip particularly interesting. Like Christmas Day, Pierre Bonnard is a son of Camelot.

The extra distance could therefore bring further improvement.

Are We Underestimating the Derby Winner?

There is another element to Christmas Day’s price that is easy to miss.

For a Derby winner approaching the St Leger, 5/2 isn’t overwhelmingly short.

Christmas Day seems to have spent much of the summer being treated as a Derby winner who still needs to prove himself rather than the clear leader of his generation.

His defeat in Ireland contributed to that.

So did York.

But the horses that beat him in those races are absent from Doncaster. Benvenuto Cellini isn’t here. Maltese Cross isn’t here.

Instead, Christmas Day meets a progressive rival stepping into Group 1 company and a stablemate he comfortably beat at Epsom but who subsequently finished ahead of him under different conditions at York.

That puts 5/2 into a slightly different light.

So Is Christmas Day the Horse to Beat?

Yes.

Whether that makes him a bet at 5/2 is another matter.

Enceladus is arguably the most exciting horse in the race because we still don’t know where his improvement ends. If he stays the trip, Christmas Day may have a serious fight on his hands.

Pierre Bonnard offers the bigger price and arrives after producing perhaps his best performance of the season.

But Christmas Day has something neither can match.

He has already won a British Classic at the highest level.

The return to level weights with Pierre Bonnard and the longer distance give him every chance of reversing the York result, while Enceladus still has to prove both his Group 1 level and his stamina.

The market has Christmas Day at 5/2, Enceladus at 2/1 and Pierre Bonnard at 3/1.

Those prices suggest three genuine contenders.

But if the question is simply which horse the others have to beat at Doncaster, the answer remains the Derby winner.