There is a case to be made that Renegade is the best horse in Saturday's Kentucky Derby field.
There is also a case to be made that he has been handed the worst draw. Both things are true, which is what makes him such a fascinating betting proposition at 4/1.
From Aqueduct to Oaklawn
Renegade is a son of Into Mischief, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. He is owned by Mike Repole and Robert and Lawana Low, and sold for $975,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
His career has five starts.
The first, at Saratoga as a two-year-old, saw him finish third in a maiden. His second start, at Aqueduct in November, ended in controversy: he crossed the line first but was disqualified and placed second behind a horse called Paladin.
He then ran second to Paladin in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct in December, a race over a mile and an eighth that showed he could handle added distance and the company, even if the winner's enclosure continued to elude him.
The breakthrough came on February 7 at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Starting as the 6/5 favourite, Renegade was shuffled back to last of nine early.
It did not matter. He launched a rally on the turn, hit the front approaching the eighth pole, and drew clear by three and three-quarter lengths.
Talking of the performance, Pletcher kept it measured: “I thought it was impressive considering he got shuffled back a little bit. He had to put in a pretty wide move but I thought he really leveled off the last part and finished up strongly.”
The Arkansas Derby
The Sam F. Davis was an encouraging warm-up. The Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn was the statement.
Pletcher had won the race five times before. Renegade made it six. Starting from the back of a field of eight, he was last after a half-mile but had moved into contention on the second turn. At the top of the stretch, Ortiz tipped him four-wide into the middle of the track, hit him once, and that was the end of the race.
He won in a time of 1:49.70, passing $1 million in career earnings in the process.
Ortiz said afterwards: “At the top of the stretch when I tipped him out and hit him one time, after that I was having fun. He was running and was going to hold it.”
The Arkansas Derby was everything connections could have hoped for. The Kentucky Derby draw was not.
The Draw
Renegade drew post 1, the rail.
No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. In the 40 years since, horses starting from the rail have made 40 attempts without a single victory. There has been one top-three finish in that time, when Lookin At Lee finished second in 2017.
The problem is structural. With 19 rivals breaking to his outside, Ortiz faces a choice that has no clean answer.
Push forward to clear the field and you risk burning up the horse's energy in the opening quarter mile. Drop back and settle, and you risk being trapped against the rail with nowhere to go when it matters.
Renegade is a closer who needs racing room and a clear run. The rail is not where closers want to be.
Pletcher has not dressed this up. He described the draw as “not ideal.” He intends to let Ortiz ride with confidence and patience, trust the horse's ability to close, and hope the pace scenario in a 20-horse field creates an opening. It is a plan. It is not a certainty.
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The Case For and Against
The case for Renegade starts with his closing speed.
His final eighth of a mile in both the Sam F. Davis and the Arkansas Derby was exceptional. He goes into the Derby on 35 days rest, well within the window that Derby winners typically need.
The case against starts with post 1 and does not require much more.
His running style demands a clear trip. He needs to come from behind and he needs room to do it. The rail at Churchill Downs in a 20-horse field is the worst place to attempt that, and history backs that up emphatically.
Then there is the trainer record. Pletcher is the most prolific Kentucky Derby trainer in history with 65 starters, but his record of two wins from those starts is modest for a man of his standing.
He has not won the race since 2017 with Always Dreaming, and several of his most fancied runners over the years have found the race one step too far.
The Main Danger: Commandment
If Renegade is going to be beaten, Brad Cox's Commandment at 5/1 is the most likely candidate.
The two are half-brothers, which adds an unusual subplot, and Commandment has arguably the stronger record at Grade 1 level. He won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream in dominant fashion and arrives from post 6, a more forgiving draw than Renegade's rail.
In a 20-horse field with several likely pace-setters, he should get the kind of race that suits him.
The Verdict
Renegade is very possibly the best horse in the race. He has the pedigree, the form, the trainer and the jockey. He also has the worst draw in the field and a running style that makes the worst draw even harder to overcome.
At 4/1 you are being asked to back a horse with a legitimate claim to be the classiest in the race, against 40 years of statistical evidence that his post position is close to unwinnable. That is the bet.
Commandment at 5/1 offers nearly the same return with a more workable draw and a running style tailor-made for a big field.
For those who want to be on one of the big two, the Brad Cox horse looks the slightly cleaner proposition.
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