As the National Hunt season begins in earnest, we look ahead to one of the biggest races on the calendar: the King George VI Chase, which will take place at Kempton Park on Boxing Day, December 26th, 2024.
What makes this race fascinating, apart from the prestige that it commands in its own right, is that so many of the potential runners this year will also likely have a go at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March 2025.
This is no surprise given the distinct lack of Grade 1 races in the UK, at least those suitable for the best of the best to run in.
They are also both Grade 1 steeplechases, run over a distance of approximately three miles, open to horses aged five years and older, and neither is a handicap.
In their own right, both are key highlights of the National Hunt calendar, with the King George VI Chase often serving as a prep race or suitability test for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
So can the results of King George predict which horses might go well at Cheltenham? When you’re trying to whittle down your Gold Cup selections on the best horse racing betting sites, can you use the information from one race to help with your selections for the other?
Let’s find out…
Historical Context
The King George VI Chase, named in honour of the newly crowned British monarch, was first run in 1937. Since then, it has become a cornerstone of the Christmas racing calendar, attracting top-class chasers from across the UK and Ireland.
Run over a distance of 3 miles (4,828 meters) with 18 fences to be jumped, it's a true test of stamina and jumping ability.
Since its inception, it has been run over 70 times, though it has been cancelled on a number of occasions, including during the period of WWII and, more recently, in 1981 because of snow and frost.
Thankfully, there have been no disruptions since then, and the race has rightly taken its place as one of the best in the country.
Trends for Picking a Winner
When it comes to looking at the trends that have historically defined the winners of the King George VI Chase, the reality is that it is usually only run by the very best racehorses across the UK and Ireland.
Horses aged 7 or 8 have historically performed well in this race. In the last 10 years, 8 winners have fallen within this age range.
Most winners have run within the last 60 days before the King George. A good performance in their last race, particularly a win, is often a positive indicator.
Pay closer attention to previous Grade 1 winners who have a strong record in this race due to their experience at the highest levels of the sport.
Certain trainers have excellent records in this race. Paul Nicholls, in particular, has been dominant, winning the race 13 times as of 2023.
And, while the going at Kempton can vary, horses that perform well on good to soft ground often excel in this race. It is a December meeting, after all!
From King George to Cheltenham Gold Cup
The King George VI Chase is often seen as a key stepping stone to the Gold Cup with plenty of the winners heading to Cheltenham the following March with varying degrees of success.
In recent years, approximately 70% of King George winners have gone on to run in the following year's Gold Cup.
For example, Bravemansgame won at Kempton in 2022 and ran in the Gold Cup in 2023, though the race was ultimately won by Galopin Des Champs.
Likewise for Tornado Flyer who won the King George in 2021 and ran in the Gold Cup in 2022 though he pulled up in a race that was won by Henry De Bromhead’s A Plus Tard, ridden by Rachael Blackmore.
The most recent winner, from 2023, was Shark Hanlon’s Hewick, who was the first in a long time not to pursue a victory in the Gold Cup, instead opting to run at the Aintree Festival in April.
With the entries not yet confirmed for either upcoming race, it’s difficult to predict just which horses will run again. However, Hewick, Bravemansgame and Gerri Colombe may take their chances at Kempton before deciding if another trip to Prestbury Park is on the cards.
Double Winners and Dual Champions
Over the past four decades, several horses have won the King George VI Chase more than once, showcasing their class and consistency.
Some notable multiple winners include:
- Kauto Star: The most successful horse in the race's history, winning an incredible five times (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011)
- Desert Orchid: Won the race four times (1986, 1988, 1989, 1990)
- Wayward Lad: Three-time winner (1982, 1983, 1985)
Achieving the feat of winning both the King George VI Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the same season is considered one of the greatest accomplishments in National Hunt racing.
So impressive, in fact, that only four horses have ever seen the winning enclosures at both.
- Long Run: King George VI Chase 2010, 2012; Cheltenham Gold Cup 2011
- Kauto Star: King George VI Chase 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011; Cheltenham Gold Cup 2007, 2009
- Best Mate: King George VI Chase 2002; Cheltenham Gold Cup 2002, 2003, 2004
- Desert Orchid: King George VI Chase 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990; Cheltenham Gold Cup: 1989
So, as you can see from the limited list above, winning both races is rare. This, of course, leads me back to the main question posed at the top of this article – can the winner of the King George be predicted as the winner of the Gold Cup?
The answer is a resounding no. Despite so many dual entries, few ever manage to win both in the same season, so it would be wise to look beyond the Kempton winner when the odds for the Gold Cup roll around.
If you want to focus on the King George, keep an eye on performances in races like the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal, as these often serve as key preparatory races for Kempton on Boxing Day.
Conclusion
The King George VI Chase remains one of the most anticipated races in the National Hunt calendar.
While trends can provide valuable insights, the unpredictable nature of horse racing means that surprises are always possible.
As we approach the 2024 edition, racing fans will be hoping to spot the next great champion who might join the illustrious list of winners and potentially go on to Cheltenham Gold Cup glory.
Remember, while trends can guide us, each race writes its own story, and that's what makes the King George VI Chase such a thrilling spectacle year after year.
