Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby, The Curragh, Sunday June 28. Group 1. 1m 4f. Prize fund: €1,250,000. Going: Good.
The Irish Derby has a way of producing moments that linger in the memory. The Curragh's wide, galloping mile and a half strips away any hiding places, and the 2026 running has the makings of a race that will clarify a good deal about the best three-year-olds in Europe.
Twelve months after Aidan O'Brien completed his record-breaking haul of wins in this race, the champion trainer saddles five of the declared runners, including the favourite.
But the opposition this time around looks more substantial than in some previous years, and there are horses in the field who genuinely believe they can take this off the dominant stable.
The Favourite: Benvenuto Cellini
The Frankel colt trained by Aidan O'Brien heads the market at 6/4. If you need to understand why, look no further than his performance at Chester in May, where he won the Chester Vase in commanding fashion under a penalty, putting any queries about stamina firmly to rest. Ryan Moore, who rode him there, was effusive in his praise afterwards.
The Epsom Derby, though, was a different story. Benvenuto Cellini was declared a non-runner for betting purposes by the stewards after getting his leg up in the stalls as the race got underway, missing the break entirely. He never featured from that point, and the heavy going compounded matters. It would be wrong to draw any conclusions from that run.
The question mark that remains is the depth of the trial form. The Chester Vase, for all its impressiveness, was a race he was fully expected to win in the manner he did. Sunday represents a much sterner examination, and at 6/4, those keeping the faith are essentially being asked to take on trust that the Derby stalls incident was simply bad luck.
Ryan Moore is expected to take the ride again, which counts for something.
Christmas Day: The Epsom Winner
Christmas Day, trained by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ronan Whelan, won the Epsom Derby in tough conditions, travelling smoothly and seeing out the trip in the manner of a genuine stayer.
It was a well-judged prominent display by Whelan, who has ridden relatively few Classic winners but deserves enormous credit for the ride he gave this horse.
The Camelot colt comes here with the most obvious credentials of any horse in the field. His pedigree suits the Curragh and Aidan O'Brien, who has now trained 12 winners of this race, described him as “capable of better” after Epsom.
The question is whether the Derby winner can reproduce his best form at the same pace with good ground underfoot, rather than the energy-sapping surface he encountered three weeks ago.
His Dante run, when outpaced from over a furlong out at York, suggests fast ground and a sharper test can find him out. This is a more searching examination than Epsom in one sense, even if the ground suits better.
At 5/1, Christmas Day represents fair value for an Epsom winner.
Raaheeb: The Banker for Some
Owen Burrows trains Raaheeb, a brother to six-time Group 1 winner Baaeed and 2023 King George winner Hukum, and the interest in this colt does not stop at the bloodlines.
He won the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown on his reappearance, doing it well despite showing greenness beforehand, and trainer Burrows has been careful not to rush him.
The bare form of the Sandown win has not been franked. Dante second Action ran below his best back in fourth that day, and that is the legitimate concern for those who have installed him as the main market rival to the O'Brien horses. There are those who see him as a banker, and the case is not without merit.
The counter-argument is that Raaheeb is priced largely on pedigree and potential rather than hard Group 1 form, and that his brothers Baaeed and Hukum were brought along more steadily before they made their mark at the highest level.
There is also a ground query. Raaheeb came back sore from his Sandown win on good going, and connections have been open about their concern on quicker surfaces.
At 4/1, he is now second favourite, and the risk/reward may not be ideal, but if he has come forward mentally and physically since Sandown, this pedigree makes him capable of anything.
James J Braddock: The Irish Derby Trial Winner
Joseph O'Brien's James J Braddock won the Leopardstown Derby Trial in May, getting up on the line to deny Pierre Bonnard by a short head, and then ran a fine race at Epsom, finishing third, five and a quarter lengths behind Christmas Day. That performance in testing conditions on only the fifth start of his life was enough to prompt trainer O'Brien to say the horse could “turn up in top international races through the course of his career.”
He has always been a bit raw in his behaviour beforehand, but the form is there. He stays the trip, handles soft ground well after winning his maiden by five lengths in that direction, and at 7/1 he is not priced out of contention.
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Pierre Bonnard: The Hard-Luck Story
Pierre Bonnard came into this season with enormous expectations. He won a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud as a two-year-old, his sire Camelot won the Derby, and his dam's sire New Approach won it too. The pedigree case for him at a mile and a half is exceptional.
But his 2026 campaign has been a stop-start affair. He was beaten in the Ballysax on his reappearance, then went down to James J Braddock in the Leopardstown trial by a short head after leading most of the way.
At Epsom, he weakened from two furlongs out and finished seventh. His trainer seems unperturbed, noting after the Derby that Pierre Bonnard had “two blows” during the race and simply needed the run.
The form of his Criterium de Saint-Cloud win is strong, and a fully fit Pierre Bonnard at the Curragh over his best trip is not a horse to dismiss entirely. He arrives at 14/1, which could look generous if he returns to his two-year-old level.
The Wider Market
Action (33/1), trained by Aidan O'Brien, finished second in the Dante at York behind Item and fourth in the Epsom Derby. He has the form to suggest he stays the trip but has been well held each time he has stepped into the top company.
Bunyola Bay (40/1), trained by Richard Hannon, won his last two starts including a Listed race and arrives here having not tackled anything like this level before. A big jump in class.
Shaihaan (100/1), trained by Donnacha O'Brien, has shown ability in lesser company but his form figures give him little chance of troubling the market leaders.
The Verdict
This is genuinely open. Christmas Day has the best form on the board and the stamina to use it, but the ground worry is real and those who watched him get outpaced at York will have reservations.
Benvenuto Cellini deserves another chance after the stalls incident at Epsom and should go well on better ground. Raaheeb has the potential to be anything but remains unproven at this level.
At the prices, James J Braddock at 7/1 has strong each-way appeal. He ran third in the Epsom Derby from a tough draw, handled the conditions, and the trainer believes he has a long future in top races.
Selection: Christmas Day (5/1). Each-way: James J Braddock (7/1), Raaheeb (4/1).
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Odds quoted are correct at time of writing and subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker for the latest prices before placing a bet.
