Gordon Elliott is one of the most successful trainers in the modern history of the Cheltenham Festival, with 41 victories at the jumps racing Olympics.
Yet despite regularly featuring near the top of the markets for those looking to bet on Cheltenham, just one of those wins has come in the opening race of the meeting, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
That success arrived almost a decade ago, when the enigmatic Labaik stormed home in 2017.
Almost a decade on, Elliott looks to have another genuine contender in El Cairos, who heads into this year’s renewal as third favourite behind Old Park Star and fellow Irish raider Talk The Talk.
The question is whether raw ability alone will be enough to bridge the gap to rivals who arrive with stronger and cleaner graded form.
El Cairos Rivals
On paper, Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star is the standout. The six-year-old is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and looked a potential star when routing his opposition by 18 lengths in the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial, the Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock.
That performance marked him down as a worthy market leader, combining slick jumping with relentless galloping power.
Talk The Talk, meanwhile, has shown both resilience and class. Like El Cairos, he came to grief at Leopardstown over Christmas, falling at the last when travelling much the best in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle.
Crucially, he bounced back in style for Joseph O’Brien, landing the Grade 1 Ireland Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and proving he could deliver when it mattered most.
El Cairos’ Christmas mishap was slightly different in nature, but no less worrying. Rather than a simple fall, he stumbled badly on landing at the last at Leopardstown before crashing out with the finish in sight.
Connections opted against throwing him back into the deep end, instead sending him to a Maiden Hurdle at Thurles rather than the more searching contests at Leopardstown.
That decision paid off in the sense that he got his head back in front, but it wasn’t without further alarm bells.
El Cairos almost blundered again at the final hurdle, crashing into the obstacle before staying on to record a fairly comfortable three-length victory.
For some observers, it was a performance that raised as many questions as it answered.
No Concern From Elliott
Elliott, however, was firmly in his horse’s corner afterwards, placing the blame for the late mistake squarely on Jack Kennedy and expressing satisfaction with what he saw.
“It is job done and he never came out of second gear. Jack said it was his fault at the last as he said he should have either taken him back or asked him, but I loved the way he came back on the bridle straight away and you’d have to be impressed by that,” said Elliott.
“We came here looking for good ground so I was nervous, but it was either come here or to Navan or Punchestown next week, which was getting too close to Cheltenham.
“I don’t think he could have done any more and he is very fast. Jack said the boot he has is unbelievable. He’ll learn plenty from today and even racing in a big field will do him no harm. He’ll go straight to Cheltenham and he’ll be way better on better ground.”
There is no doubting El Cairos’ natural speed, nor his ability to recover when things go wrong. But the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is rarely forgiving.
The pace lifts dramatically turning for home, and any hesitation at a hurdle can prove terminal against rivals who jump fluently and maintain momentum.
That is where the concern lies. Old Park Star and Talk The Talk have already proven themselves at graded level, beating strong opposition.
El Cairos, by contrast, still has to show he can deliver a faultless round when the pressure is at its most intense.
Whether he can do that is something only race day will reveal. For now, while Elliott may yet land a second Supreme, El Cairos looks a riskier proposition than his two principal rivals.
As things stand, Old Park Star and Talk The Talk bring fewer questions and stronger credentials into the opening race of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival.
