The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is often associated with autumn rain, testing ground and horses finishing the 2,400 metres at ParisLongchamp with very little left in the tank.
The build-up to the 2026 race has been rather different.
Paris has experienced an unusually dry September, with France Galop reporting no rain at Longchamp between September 8 and September 26. The course was reading 3.3, officially good to soft, on September 25, with officials watering the track to stop it becoming quicker still. France Galop currently expects good-to-soft ground for Sunday’s Arc, although rain forecasts during the week mean conditions could still change.
What is clear is that this does not currently look like the deep, stamina-sapping Arc ground we have sometimes seen.
And that could make a major difference to several of the leading contenders.
Maltese Cross Could Be One of the Biggest Winners
Few connections will have been happier to see a dry Longchamp than those surrounding Maltese Cross.
The William Haggas-trained three-year-old has already shown he can handle softer conditions, finishing second in the Derby when the ground was soft, but there is a growing feeling that a sounder surface allows him to show more of his speed.
Jockey Tom Marquand has made no secret of his preference for quicker conditions, describing the dry forecast as very welcome ahead of one of the biggest rides of his career.
When the ground becomes very soft, the race can turn into a battle of stamina and the ability to cope with difficult conditions. On better ground, tactical speed and the ability to quicken sharply in the closing stages become much more important.
That could play directly to Maltese Cross.
His position near the head of the betting reflects how seriously he is being taken. William Hill shortened him from 7/1 to 6/1 when forecasts suggested the amount of rain expected at Longchamp was reducing.
If the surface remains close to good, he could be one of the clearest beneficiaries.
Kalpana May Also Appreciate Better Ground
Another major contender whose prospects may improve on a sound surface is Kalpana.
Andrew Balding has indicated that good ground would suit his King George star, and bookmakers also reacted when the forecast began to look drier, with Kalpana shortened from 8/1 to 7/1 by William Hill.
Kalpana brings top-level form into the race and does not require extreme conditions to be effective.
Better ground could allow her to travel smoothly through the race rather than turning the Arc into a prolonged test of stamina from some way out.
That could be particularly important if the pace is strong.
The Arc can often become a messy race tactically, especially with a large field, and horses need enough speed to hold their position before producing a finishing effort in the straight.
Kalpana looks well equipped for that type of contest.
Daryz Should Not Be Worried
Defending champion Daryz is perhaps the most interesting horse when discussing the ground because his chances do not appear to depend heavily on one particular surface.
Last year’s winner has shown enough versatility to suggest that neither good nor soft ground should be a major concern.
That is a significant advantage.
While connections of some runners will be checking every weather forecast this week, Daryz can arrive at Longchamp knowing he has already proved himself around the course and over the distance.
The market continues to reflect that confidence, with Daryz remaining a clear favourite.
A faster Arc might ask a slightly different question of him than the race he won last year, but there is little evidence to suggest it would count against him.
If anything, the changing conditions could cause more problems for his rivals than for him.
The Dry Weather Is Bad News for Bay City Roller
At the opposite end of the argument is Bay City Roller.
George Scott has made it clear that his Coronation Cup winner would welcome plenty of natural rain before Sunday.
The horse showed how effective he can be in testing conditions when winning at Epsom earlier this season, and his connections have been open about the fact that the state of the Longchamp ground will influence whether he runs.
Scott said there was around a 75 per cent chance of Bay City Roller taking his place, but also stated that the horse needs significant natural rainfall rather than simply watered ground. The Champion Stakes at Ascot is available as an alternative.
Of all the leading Arc contenders, Bay City Roller therefore appears to have most to lose if Paris remains dry.
Thundering On May Want More Rain
The same may apply, although perhaps less dramatically, to Thundering On.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained runner remains among the shorter-priced horses in the Arc betting, but her price eased slightly when forecasts became drier.
William Hill pushed Thundering On out from 17/2 to 8/1 as Maltese Cross and Kalpana shortened.
That small market move tells its own story.
Connections are still waiting to see exactly how conditions develop, and there is also uncertainty surrounding whether Dylan Browne McMonagle will recover from injury in time to take the ride.
Rain during the middle of the week could bring her straight back into the conversation.
The Weather Could Reshape the Arc Yet Again
There are still 19 horses in the Arc after Monday’s first forfeit stage, including Daryz, Maltese Cross, Kalpana, Thundering On, Bay City Roller, Minnie Hauk, Diamond Necklace and Japanese challengers Admire Terra and Meisho Tabaru.
That field will shrink again before Sunday.
So might the difference between the horses who want rain and those who do not.
France Galop is currently aiming to produce good-to-soft ground, while forecasts have suggested some rain could arrive between Wednesday and Thursday.
But unless Paris gets considerably wetter than currently expected, this could be an Arc run on a much sounder surface than we often associate with the race.
If that happens, Maltese Cross and Kalpana may have more reason than most to be pleased.
Bay City Roller might be looking towards the clouds.
And Daryz?
The defending champion may simply be waiting for everyone else to worry about it.
