2011 is not a year that Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien may want to remember. Well, not in terms of results at Epsom anyway.
That is the last year in which O’Brien failed to win either the Epsom Derby or Oaks. Will it be another memorable year for him in 2025?
Last year saw O’Brien win the Epsom Derby with City of Troy. Although that runner went off as favourite with online sportsbooks, success wasn’t guaranteed after a flop in the 2000 Guineas.
The three-year-old returned to form and gave O’Brien his tenth Derby winner.
It was the second successive win in the race for O’Brien. 2023 had seen Auguste Rodin win, and that was the first time since 2020 O’Brien had won the Derby.
It’s not often that in the weeks leading up to Epsom, neither of the favourites for the Derby or the Oaks comes from the O’Brien yard. Perhaps it could be 2011 all over again?
Epsom Oaks Favourite
Currently at the top of the betting market for the Oaks on June 6 is Charlie Appleby’s Desert Flower.
This runner won the 1000 Guineas and is 11/8 to win the Oaks according to the UK’s prominent horse race betting platforms at Horse bet.
This contender is unbeaten in her five runs, but this will be the longest distance the filly has ever encountered.
Her win in the 1000 Guineas was over a mile at Newmarket. Will the extra four furlongs on a difficult track like Epsom find her out?
Desert Flower is the current favourite and will be attempting to complete the 1000 Guineas and Oaks double.
The three-year-old is trained by Charlie Appleby, who will be bidding to win the one-and-a-half-mile race for the first time.
Desert Flower has won all five of her races, and all but two have been in group company. Her biggest success as a two-year-old was when winning the bet365 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket.
That was won on good to soft ground, so any June downpours wouldn’t be bad news for Desert Flower.
O'Brien Is An Outsider
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t actually have an Oaks runner that currently has single-digit odds. His best chance of securing another winner in this Epsom classic is Minnie Hauk at 10/1.
She goes to Epsom on back-to-back wins, having secured her first victory as a two-year-old at Leopardstown in October before winning again at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks on May 7.
That was run over a distance just half a furlong shorter than will be faced at Epsom.
O’Brien never goes into a race like this with just the one major contender. Giselle is 12/1 to land the Epsom Oaks and has shown good form already as a three-year-old.
This contender went into several notebooks after winning Lingfield’s William Oaks Trial. That was run over a-mile-and-three-and-a-half furlongs.
The race only saw three runners go to post, but Giselle won the race by nine lengths and could show more improvement at Epsom.
Lake Victoria is 14/1 but after four wins last year could finish only sixth in the 1000 Guineas. A recovery mission is needed to earn Epsom success.
The Derby
June 7 sees the Epsom Derby being run, and this time O’Brien does have the current favourite. The Lion in Winter is 7/2 to win the race and was unbeaten as a two-year-old with a couple of victories.
Getting the 12 furlongs shouldn’t be a problem as his sire, Sea the Stars, won the Epsom Derby in 2009.
One of his wins as a two-year-old saw him finish ahead of Ruling Court, who won the 2000 Guineas this year. Can The Lion in Winter beat Ruling Court (4/1 to win the race) and win the Epsom Derby?
That previous meeting was only over seven furlongs, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens over a further five.
O’Brien has several other leading Derby contenders. Delacoix is priced up at 9/2 and won two Group 3 races last year.
His sire is Dubaw, who has already seen one of his progeny win the Epsom Oaks.
The unbeaten Twain is 8/1 to win the Epsom Derby and won a Group 1 race last year. His two runs were on heavy and soft ground, but his breeding suggests running on good ground won’t be a problem.
An interesting runner at a big price is Lambourn, who is 25/1. This contender won the recent Chester Vase, and that was over half a furlong longer than the Derby.
Is there further improvement on the way, or perhaps Lambourn should go into your notebook for the St Leger later in the year?
2025 could be another successful year for Aidan O’Brien at Epsom. He hasn’t completed the Oaks and Derby double since 2020, but there’s a chance he might just achieve that feat again this June.
