Every year, global stars become the centre of the world for Thoroughbreds as they battle for the championship. This year, it will take place in Del Mar and will be one of the most competitive events in recent history.
This is mostly due to the depth of the talent, especially in the marquee Classic division. Here, the emerging 3-year-old stars will face more experienced horses.
In this article, we'll explain which horses to follow and why.
Race Dynamics & Predictions
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The race will mostly depend on pace, and the horses that master it will be the ones to compete for the championship.
The track is known for its fast dirt and firm turf, which reward tactical speed and agility. Chances are the weather will be mild, making it perfect for the race.
Sovereignty — The 3-Year-Old Phenomenon
Sovereignty has ruled the 2025 Triple Crown, as well as the most important summer races. It won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers and dominated in all of those races.
At this point, Sovereignty wasn't defeated at all this season. It's therefore the main favourite for this race as well.
It combines the most important qualities a horse needs to be so dominant: stamina, tactical gear shifts, and consistency.
The main risk is the ability to switch to an open company. If he does, he's the overwhelming favourite.
It's important to note that this will be the first race it faces older horses and a longer track.
Fierceness — Familiar Face at Del Mar
Todd Pletcher trains with fierce intensity and has one major edge over opponents of a similar level. It's experienced and has a history with Del Mar that others don't.
He dominated the Pacific Classic over the same 1¼-mile distance earlier this year.
The most important assets Fierceness has at its disposal are the ability to achieve early speed and to have inside comfort.
However, he can't survive at a strong pace, and that's where Sovereignty has an edge.
Sierra Leone — the Defending Champion
Sierra Leone is another experienced horse, and at this point, a veteran. It defends the title in Del Mar, and many feel that under Chad Brown, it's a serious contender.
He arrived late in this season and had some amazing runs, such as the one at Whitney, but also a few stumbles, such as in New Orleans.
It's therefore a risky choice, one that could go either way. It's also important to note that Sierra Leone is known for a sustained late drive, and with a pace as the one we've seen before, it could put him at a serious advantage against Fierceness.
Mindframe — The Dark Horse
Mindframe is another Pletcher runner. He was quietly building momentum. Mindframe captured the Stephen Foster Stakes and earlier showed top-level form.
These successes came in races under 1 1⁄4 miles, and Del Mar will be the first place to test his abilities in a longer race.
The main challenge will be to maintain the form during late-speed duels. It would be a surprise for Mindframe to perform as well as the other runners we mentioned, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Forever Young — Japan's Challenger
When it comes to overseas runners, Forever Young is the most important challenger.
The Japanese star has had some amazing international performances, including a solid third in last year's Classic.
This has given the team great confidence, but it's hard to call it a real challenge.
The horse has shown important strengths, such as toughness and the ability to adapt to the race, but we don't know whether it could adapt to the pace needed to win at Del Mar.
Dirt-style, open company racing is also somewhat new to Forever Young.
Others to Watch — Baeza, Journalism, Antiquarian & Locked
There are also a few horses that the bettors should watch. These are long shots, but there's a reason they've caught the attention of experts in the field.
Baeza: The Pennsylvania Derby winner garnered attention because of the late surge he performed. Such an approach could be an asset in Del Mar.
Journalism: A Preakness winner in 2025 has shown great speed, but lacks the finish needed to compete with the horses on our list.
Antiquarian: The Gold Cup winner over Sierra Leone. It's tested and can obviously beat more prominent runners, but it's a stretch to bet on it.
