Two Travers Stakes Outsiders Who Could Outrun Their Odds

There are years when the Travers Stakes looks like a good race for finding a big-priced runner who has slipped under the radar. The 2026 renewal is not quite so simple.

This is a strong field, with several horses arriving at Saratoga with major races already on their records.

Golden Tempo has taken both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Renegade has won the Arkansas Derby and Jim Dandy, while Napoleon Solo and Baby Vino have landed the Preakness and Haskell respectively.

Sea Strike has also forced his way into the conversation after an impressive 8¼-length Saratoga win.

With that amount of proven form near the head of the betting, finding value at bigger odds takes a little more work.

However, two runners stand out as possible alternatives to the obvious names.

Silent Tactic Looks Better Than His Odds Suggest

Silent Tactic is priced like an outsider, but his race record suggests he belongs in this company.

Mark Casse’s colt has run seven times and has never finished outside the first three. His season started well when he won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, before he finished runner-up in both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby.

His second behind Renegade in the Arkansas Derby looked like a useful piece of form at the time and has become even more relevant since.

The problem was that Silent Tactic never got the chance to build on it during the Triple Crown races. A foot issue ruled him out through the spring, leaving him on the sidelines while several of Saturday’s rivals were competing in the biggest three-year-old races of the season.

That made his return in the Jim Dandy particularly encouraging.

Silent Tactic went into the race following a break of around four months and was taking on race-fit opposition, including Renegade and Commandment. He raced closer to the leaders than he had in some of his earlier starts and remained involved well into the stretch.

He eventually finished third, 2½ lengths behind Renegade, while recording a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 94.

What made that performance more interesting were Casse’s expectations beforehand. The trainer had suggested that finishing around eight lengths behind the winner would have represented a perfectly acceptable return. Instead, Silent Tactic was still close enough inside the final furlong for Casse to briefly think he could win.

This time there should be far fewer excuses on fitness grounds.

Silent Tactic has remained at Saratoga and has had time to build on his Jim Dandy effort, including a five-furlong breeze on August 19.

Post 10 gives Luis Saez a decision to make early, but the colt has enough pace to gain a useful position without necessarily being forced into an early battle.

At around 16/1, he looks one of the more interesting horses outside the leading group, particularly for anyone looking at place or each-way bets.

Could Leading Change Improve Again?

Leading Change reaches the Travers with a completely different profile.

Silent Tactic has enough form to make a fairly clear case for him. With Leading Change, the attraction is how little we have seen so far.

Brad Cox’s colt has raced just twice and remains unbeaten.

He won his maiden on debut before Cox made the unusual decision to send him straight into the Grade 3 Indiana Derby for only his second race.

It was a major rise in class and he handled it, winning again and earning himself a place in the Travers.

Cox has since spoken positively about the figures Leading Change has produced and believes the 1¼-mile distance should not cause a problem. The colt has also been prepared seriously for Saratoga, including a five-furlong Churchill Downs workout completed in 59.80 seconds.

The question is whether two races can possibly prepare him for what he faces on Saturday.

The Travers brings together horses who have already gone through demanding Triple Crown races and Grade 1 contests. Golden Tempo, Renegade and Napoleon Solo have all experienced the pressure that comes with racing at this level.

Leading Change has not.

That is clearly a concern, but it is also part of the reason he remains available at around 12/1. There is still no clear indication of where his limit lies.

Stall two could help Manny Franco give him an economical trip. If he can settle behind the early pace, save ground and avoid being asked for too much too soon, he could be one of the horses still moving forward in the closing stages.

He has far more to prove than most of his rivals, but an unbeaten horse from the Brad Cox stable is difficult to dismiss completely.

Latest Travers Stakes Odds

Silent Tactic or Leading Change?

If choosing between the two, Silent Tactic would be my preference for the more solid bet.

His Jim Dandy third provides recent Saratoga form and a direct comparison with Renegade, while his preparation for the Travers has been much more complete than it was for that comeback run.

Leading Change is harder to assess. He could find this level too much too soon, but two wins from two starts mean we still do not know how good he may be.

For those looking beyond the main Travers favourites, both make some appeal at double-figure odds.

Silent Tactic looks the stronger option to reach the first three, while Leading Change is the more speculative choice if you are looking for a horse who could improve sharply enough to cause a major upset.