With Betfred paying 1/5 odds on the first four places, many punters will be looking beyond the obvious contenders in the 2026 Betfred Derby and searching for a horse that can outrun its odds.
The market is headed by Benvenuto Cellini, Item and Pierre Bonnard, and rightly so. All three arrive with strong credentials and sit prominently in the betting. Yet Derby history is littered with horses that were largely overlooked before producing the run of their lives at Epsom.
Finding a winner at a big price is never easy, but finding a horse capable of sneaking into the first four can be a more realistic objective. Looking through the field, three runners stand out as horses whose odds may be bigger than their chance of making the frame: James J Braddock, Action and Poker.
James J Braddock could be peaking at the right time
Of the three, James J Braddock perhaps has the most obvious case for an each-way bet.
Trained by Joseph O'Brien, he produced an eye-catching performance when winning a Curragh maiden by six lengths on heavy ground as a two-year-old. His return in the Ballysax Stakes did not see him seriously threaten the winner, but he took a significant step forward when returning to Leopardstown for a Derby Trial four weeks ago.
That day he left it very late before swooping past Pierre Bonnard, a horse currently trading much shorter in the Derby market. The victory reinforced the feeling that a mile and a half will suit him well.
There is another encouraging point. His sire's sole Group 1 success came over this distance, suggesting that stamina should not be an issue.
Racing insiders have identified him as a genuine each-way player, which is notable given the strength of this year's field. At around 9/1 or 10/1, he may not be a huge outsider, but he could be the most solid each-way option outside the leading trio.
Action has already shown he belongs at this level
While much of the attention has focused on Item following his Dante victory, it is worth remembering that Action was the horse who made the race.
Action is related to 2025 Derby winner Lambourn has already shown useful Group 1 form, finishing a close second in the Futurity at Doncaster last season. More recently, he again filled the runner-up position in the Dante at York.
While he was unable to match Item in the closing stages, the performance still ranks among the stronger pieces of form on offer from the bigger-priced runners.
What makes Action particularly interesting at around 16/1 is that there appears to be a straightforward case for improvement. Connections have reached for cheekpieces after his latest run, and if they have the desired effect he could find a little extra when it matters most.
A place may prove a more realistic target than victory, but for each-way bettors that is hardly a negative. With four places available, a horse already proven in Group company and coming here off a strong Dante run deserves respect at double-figure odds.
Could Poker be the race's forgotten horse?
No horse in the field has a more unusual story than Poker.
The Karl Burke-trained colt fetched an astonishing 4,300,000 guineas as a yearling, making him the most expensive colt ever sold at auction in Europe. Expectations were naturally enormous.
Things have not gone entirely to plan since then. He was well beaten by Bay Of Brilliance at Redcar last season. Yet there are still reasons why some adventurous punters may be tempted by his huge odds.
Poker's most recent outing came in a Haydock novice over a mile and a half, where he finished second after making the running. He showed plenty of determination that day, suggesting there may still be more ability to unlock than his current record shows.
At 200/1 he is not a horse most people will expect to see involved. The wider consensus remains cautious and acknowledges that expectations were once much higher. Even so, Derby history contains plenty of examples of lightly raced horses improving dramatically once they step into deeper waters.
Nobody is suggesting Poker should be one of the favourites. What he does offer is something many of the other outsiders do not: the possibility that we still have not seen his ceiling. At enormous odds, that alone may be enough to attract a few speculative each-way bets.
The verdict
The favourites deserve their positions at the head of the market and it would be no surprise to see one of Benvenuto Cellini, Item or Pierre Bonnard lifting the trophy.
For those looking further down the betting, James J Braddock makes the strongest each-way appeal. His Derby Trial victory was a significant piece of form and there is every indication that the move up to a mile and a half will suit.
Action appeals as a horse who may have been overlooked because of Item's Dante success. His own performance at York was full of merit and a place finish is far from out of the question.
Poker is the wildcard. The evidence suggests he faces a huge task, but as the most expensive colt ever sold in Europe and a horse who remains relatively unexposed, he is at least capable of attracting interest from punters who like to take a chance at very big odds.
With Betfred paying four places, finding a horse to hit the frame rather than win outright may prove the smarter approach, and these three runners could offer more value than their prices suggest.
BETFRED
