The Kentucky Derby finish on May 2 was one of those moments that racing throws up every few years.
A 23-1 shot, barely visible at the back of an 18-horse field with half a mile to run, threading through traffic and arriving late enough to catch the favourite in the final strides. Golden Tempo won by a neck. Renegade, the horse everyone had expected to win, finished second.
A month later they meet again. Same distance, smaller field, different track. And this time, the circumstances that made Golden Tempo's Derby victory possible are much less likely to be there.
What Actually Happened in the Derby
To understand why Renegade is the right side of this rematch, it helps to look honestly at what happened at Churchill Downs and separate the result from the performance.
Renegade was the 4-1 morning-line favourite, drawn on the rail in post 1, a gate that has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
From the start, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was fighting the draw as much as the field.
In an 18-horse race, the rail means traffic, congestion, and no room to manoeuvre. Renegade's finishing kick in the final furlong was as good as anything in the race. It just was not quite enough to overhaul a horse that had the run of things from a much cleaner position.
Golden Tempo's win was real. He earned it. But it was also a performance that required almost everything to go right: an honest early pace set by Six Speed, a clean passage from the outside, and the freedom to make one sustained run from the back.
He came from last to first in one of the most dramatic finishes in recent Derby memory. The question is whether he can do it again when the conditions are different.
Why Saratoga Changes Things
The Belmont Stakes has been held at Saratoga for the past three years while Belmont Park undergoes renovation. It runs at a mile and a quarter rather than the traditional mile and a half, and on a tighter track with two turns rather than Belmont's sweeping layout. None of that is bad for Renegade. Most of it is bad for Golden Tempo.
With nine horses instead of eighteen, the dynamics of the race shift significantly. There is less pace, less traffic, less chaos.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux made the calculated decision to skip the Preakness and bring Golden Tempo here fresh, banking on the same late-running style that worked at Churchill Downs.
The problem is that style depends on being dragged into contention by a fast early tempo. In a nine-horse field with Powershift, Renegade's stablemate, likely the only confirmed front-runner, the early fractions are expected to be considerably more modest.
A slow to moderate pace in a small field means the leaders do not tire as readily. It means the closers have less ground to make up and less momentum when they make their move. That is a scenario where tactical horses who can sit close to the pace and respond quickly are at a premium. Renegade is exactly that kind of horse. Golden Tempo is not.
The Case for Renegade
Start with the prep form. His two wins before the Derby, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, were both dominant. At Oaklawn he came from last of eight to win by four lengths, carrying top weight, in a performance that Todd Pletcher called the best he had seen from the colt. The Arkansas Derby is one of the most reliable Kentucky Derby preps, and Renegade won it in the style of a horse with plenty more to give.
Then consider the circumstances at Churchill Downs. Post 1 is a documented disadvantage in a field of 18. The draw alone made his task harder before the gates opened. He ran a neck second despite that.
On a track that suits him better, from a more workable post position, with a pace scenario that allows Ortiz to have him closer to the leaders from an earlier stage, it is not hard to see how the result changes.
Pletcher has won the Belmont four times. Ortiz is widely regarded as the best jockey in American racing right now. And Renegade himself, a son of Into Mischief out of a Curlin mare, is bred for exactly this kind of test.
The Verdict
Golden Tempo is a worthy Kentucky Derby winner and should not be dismissed. He has hit the board in all five of his career starts, he arrives fresh, and DeVaux has proven she can prepare a horse for a big occasion. If the pace somehow matches what he got at Churchill Downs, he is dangerous.
But the honest assessment is that his Derby win was built on a specific set of circumstances that are unlikely to repeat themselves at Saratoga.
Renegade was the better horse in the prep season, ran a near-flawless race despite a damaging draw, and lost by the narrowest possible margin to a horse who had every advantage.
At 2-1, he is not long odds. But in a nine-horse field with conditions in his favour and a point to prove, he looks the right call.
