The Betfred 2000 Guineas has a long track record of rewarding those prepared to look past the obvious names at the top of the market.
Bow Echo, Distant Storm, and Gstaad currently head the betting, but past renewals suggest there is often value elsewhere.
Rockavon still holds the record as the biggest-priced winner at 66/1 back in 1961, while Night of Thunder scored at 40/1 in 2014.
Makfi’s success at 33/1 in 2010 is another reminder that this Newmarket Classic can throw up shocks, and with only around 40% of winners starting as favourites, the market leader is beaten more often than not.
This year’s race looks wide open, with several runners bringing form that hints they can outrun their current prices.
With no standout performer and a few mixed efforts on seasonal return, there could be an opportunity for those willing to take a chance away from the front of the betting.
Alparslan: Burke's Progressive Colt
Karl Burke’s Alparslan looks interesting at around 16/1 after landing the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury in April.
Three wins from four starts marks him down as a colt with plenty going for him, though there is a question to answer regarding his run on the Rowley Mile when sixth behind Gewan in the Dewhurst.
Burke has suggested the track may not have suited, while also pointing out that immaturity as a two-year-old could have been a factor.
After his Newbury success, the trainer spoke positively, describing him as a high-class type who would come on again for the run.
Notably, he was finishing stronger in the closing stages there, which offers encouragement that the mile trip should suit.
Thesecretadversary: Irish Raider with Scope
Fozzy Stack’s Thesecretadversary stands out at around 20/1 after an eye-catching return when winning a trial at Leopardstown.
By St Mark’s Basilica, he pulled clear late on, suggesting he has progressed well since last season. That effort followed a fifth-place finish in a Grade 1 at Woodbine and a second in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He also shaped well last term when narrowly beaten at Ayr as a short-priced favourite, adding to the view that there is more to come.
The Leopardstown form looks solid, with runner-up Power Blue having previously finished second in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes.
Oxagon: Gosden's Craven Winner
John and Thady Gosden’s Oxagon is priced around 11/1 after producing a smart display to win the Craven Stakes on his return.
The son of Frankel, fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, looked professional in victory. Gosden later admitted he had made a mistake running him on heavy ground in the Futurity at Doncaster, where he finished last.
The Craven field may not have been the strongest, but Oxagon did everything asked of him, and his connections feel he deserves his place in what looks an open renewal.
There are still some concerns from his Dewhurst run, where he took time to get going and did not finish strongly up the hill.
That race was won by Gewan, who looked a top-class juvenile before his untimely death.
Given his profile as a Craven winner, his current price still looks fair.
The Value Verdict
BETFRED
GET £50 IN FREE BETS WHEN YOU BET £10
For those looking at each-way options, Thesecretadversary at around 25/1 appeals as a strong alternative to the favourites.
His rating of 109 puts him alongside the best of the outsiders, and his Leopardstown win suggested he has improved from two to three.
He has the pedigree for the trip, has already shown useful form at a high level, and looks the type who may not have reached his peak yet.
The fact he has been entered in multiple Guineas races suggests connections think highly of him, and the way he finished his race last time points to a horse capable of mixing it at this level.
With each-way terms offering some cover, and the price still generous, he makes some appeal in a race where the leading contenders all have something to prove, whether it be the track, the trip, or their overall level of form.
In a year where the Guineas lacks a clear standout, Thesecretadversary fits the profile of a horse who could outrun expectations and at least hit the frame.
